* Brazil's output to fall 15 to 20 percent-ICO
   * Brazil seen producing 37.7 mln to 40.1 mln bags
   * Shortfall of beans expected as Brazil's output drop
  
   By Diana Delgado
   CARTAGENA, Colombia, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The coffee output of Brazil, the world's top grower, may fall 15 to 20 percent in the period of April 2011 to March 2012 as trees enter a lower yielding cycle after a high production, acting chief of the International Coffee Organization Jose Sette said on Friday.
   Brazil is expected to produce between 37.7 million to 40.1 million bags of 60-kg in 2011/12 (April-March) versus the 47.2 million bags expected to produce in the April 2010/ March 2011 period. 
  

   "Good harvests are always followed by smaller harvests as trees need to take a rest," Sette told Reuters on the sidelines of a coffee seminar held in Cartagena.
   With Brazil's output falling in the 2011-2012 period and consumption growing rapidly there, the coffee industry may experience a shortfall of beans next year.
   "If Brazil has a harvest drop next year, unfortunately there will be a shortfall unless output in other countries reacts," Sette said.
   Brazil, which consumes around 19 million bags of 60-kg locally, could become the No. 1 coffee consumer in the world in three to four years, surpassing the United States, as consumption grows four percent annually, Sette said.
   As Brazil consumption grows so does the expansion of land  planted with beans. As a result, Brazil will probably continue on its trend of increasing production and exports, he noted.
   Carlos Brando, a Brazilian coffee expert, said the South American nation will have a shortfall of 11 million 60-kg bags in the 2011/12 period as output won't be enough to supply domestic demand and exports.
   "Favorable coffee prices should remain high for the next two to three years," he said.
   Brando's pegs Brazil's output at as much as 42 million bags for the 2011-2012 period with exports climbing to 33 million bags and local demand rising to 20 million bags. (Reporting by Diana Delgado; Editing by Marguerita Choy)     
Saturday, 06 November 2010 04:28:28RTRS