24-Apr-2012
14:51
By Ho Binh Minh
HANOI,
April 24 (Reuters) - Vietnamese coffee trading has been moderate as prices held
near a key level in the past week even as stock levels were good and the next
harvest may show a gain over the previous period, traders and an industry
official said on Tuesday.
Output
from the next 2012/2013 coffee crop in Daklak, Vietnam's top growing province,
is forecast to rise around 10 percent to 430,000-450,000 tonnes, or 7.2 million
to 7.5 million bags, thanks to good weather, an industry official said.
An
output rise in Vietnam, the world's largest producer of robusta beans, could
cool prices by easing concerns over tight supply due to bad weather in
producing nations and rising consumption.
London's
July robusta contract LRCN2
lost $12 a tonne to close at $2,044 a tonne on Monday.
"Prices
in Vietnam are around 40,000 dong a kg, at which sellers can unload stocks
easily," a trader at a foreign company in Ho Chi Minh City said.
Discounts
stood at $30-$40 a tonne to the July contract, stable in the past two weeks,
placing Vietnam's grade two, 5 percent black and broken beans at $2,004-$2,014
a tonne, free-on-board Saigon Port, up from $1,953-$1,973 last Tuesday. COFFEE/ASIA1
But
most transactions were domestic, with farmers collecting cash from buying
agents or exporters as local prices reached 'a psychological level' of 40,000
dong, said another trader in Buon Ma Thuot, the capital city of Daklak.
Tracking
London's fall overnight, robusta in Daklak eased to 39,800 dong ($1.91) per kg
on Tuesday from 40,100-40,200 dong on Monday, but which were still above 39,400
dong per kg a week ago.
During
and after the harvest, farmers often deposit coffee beans at buying agents, or
in warehouses of major exporters, and fix their selling price when they need
cash or see market prices reaching a high level.
MIXED
VIEWS
The
October 2012/September 2013 crop harvesting is slated to start in late October
or early November.
"Entering
this crop the weather is favourable, with relatively regular rain and a good
volume of flowers coming out," said the senior official from Buon Ma Thuot
Coffee Association who declined to be identified.
The
association's members are coffee export companies based in Daklak, which turns
out a third of Vietnam's total output.
"Farmers
are still watering trees in some areas but generally the process is
ending," he said by telephone from Buon Ma Thuot.
Traders
have yet to have their own estimates on the output.
The
trader in Ho Chi Minh City said he would survey on production in May, while the
trader in Buon Ma Thuot disagreed with the forecast of a rise, saying:
"Some areas in Daklak may report higher output but overall Vietnam's next
crop is going to fall, not to rise."
He
said the next harvest may fall around 10 percent from nearly 1.3 million tonnes
picked in the 2011/2012 crop.
The
association's official was talking a week before the watering process ends as
the rainy season is expected to return in the Central Highlands early next
month. Watering plus fertiliser feed since February helps ensure yields for the
next harvest.
Traders
say an output forecast made at the end of the watering process is generally
most accurate.
On
Feb. 20 the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said rain and rough
handling have ruined some coffee flowers in Vietnam, which could lead to a drop
in yields of the next 2012/2013 crop. [nL4E8DK24M]
Vietnam
produced 17.5 million 60-kg bags of coffee in the 2011/2012 crop year, down 10
percent from the previous season, the International Coffee Organization said. |
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HANOI, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Coffee trading in Vietnam resumed at a slow pace after a break for the Tet new year festival, as weaker international markets prompted sellers to hold back supplies of beans in the expectation of higher prices later, traders said on Tuesday.
Farmers sold small volumes during the January 21-29national holiday, a trader in the top coffee growing province
of
Daklak
said, but official trading only started on Monday. "Farmers have no need to rush to sell the beans now. Many of them sold to pay back loans to banks and creditors and cover expenses before Tet already," he said.
Despite large stocks, farmers are not under pressure to sell beans as they don't need to pay for fertiliser for thenext crop until the early rainy season, which falls in April or early May in the Central Highlands, a trader in
Ho Chi Minh City
said. Farmers finished harvesting the 2011/12 crop early thismonth, and only a small volume of arabica beans are now under work.
For an analysis on
Vietnam
premiums [nL3E7NT00A] For Reuters global coffee poll COF/POLL
FACTBOX on
Vietnam
's 2011/12 coffee crop [nL3E7FL15B] Robusta beans fell to 37 million dong ($1,763) a tonne in Daklak on Tuesday from 37.4 million dong before Tet, tracking a downturn in international markets.
March robustas futures on Liffe LRCH2 slipped $22, or 1.2 percent, to close at $1,843 a tonne on Monday. [nL5E8CU2OS]
Buyers were also reluctant to purchase beans and kept the discounts at $40-50 a tonne to the March contract, loading this month, the trader in
Ho Chi Minh City
said. Some exporters offered premiums for robusta grade 2, 5 percent black and broken beans at $5-10 a tonnes, versus a $10-20 a tonne premium on Jan. 17, traders said.
Robusta beans ranged between $1,793 -
$1,853 per tonne on Tuesday, on a free-on-board basis, against $1,804-1,874 before Tet. COFFEE/ASIA1
($1=20,900 dong)
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Vietnam
Coffee-Prices ease,
more sales expected
in Jan - RTRS
Today 13:48
By
Ho Binh Minh
HANOI,
Dec 27 (Reuters) - Vietnamese coffee prices eased slightly this week in line
with London futures market before sales could pick up early next year when
growers unload beans to prepare for the Lunar New Year, traders said on
Tuesday.
Stocks
of fresh beans are plentiful now as farmers have harvested around 80 percent
of the 2011/2012 crop in the Central Highlands
coffee belt. The harvesting would end in the first half of January, before
the lunar new year arrives on Jan. 23.
"The
main activity is only on domestic markets as some speculators are buying for
stocking, while foreign buyers are still away for holidays," a trader in
Ho Chi Minh City
said.
Robusta
prices fell 1.7 percent to 38.5-38.6 million dong ($1,831-$1,836) a tonne on
Tuesday in Daklak, Vietnam's main growing province,
from 39.0-39.4 million dong a week ago.
Prices
in Vietnam are on par with
London's
March contract LRCH2,
which lost $27 to end at $1,831 a tonne on Friday. SOF/L
Premiums of Vietnamese robusta grade 2,
5 percent black and broken beans widened to $50 a tonne to London's March
contract on Tuesday from $30-$40 a week ago, and bids also rose to a premium
of $40 a tonne, from $15-$20 last Tuesday.
The
premiums placed the beans at between $1,871 and $1,881 a tonne, free-on-board
basis, down from $1,898-$1,908 last week. COFFEE/ASIA1
Traders
said Vietnamese farmers were expected to release some stocks before Tet, the
country's largest festival to mark the lunar new year.
"Most
farmers are still holding on to their stock, but some could start selling a
bit next month," a dealer said.
The
coffee market, among all other markets in the Southeast Asian nation, will
close from Jan. 22 to Jan. 26 for Tet, but normal trading is expected to
resume after the weekend ending Jan. 29.
The
slowing export from Vietnam,
the world's largest robusta producer, could help support domestic prices for
a while, traders said.
Vietnam's
coffee exports in December fell an estimated 26.8 percent from a year ago to
120,000 tonnes, or 2 million bags, in line with market expectations, the
Agriculture Ministry said on Monday. [nL3E7NK4X2]
Traders
have estimated between 110,000 tonnes and 150,000 tonnes could be loaded from
Vietnam
this month. [nL3E7N51UH]
The
export revenues this year would jump 45.35 percent from 2010 to $2.69
billion, or an average FOB price of $2,206 a tonne, the agriculture ministry
said in its monthly report, suggesting a 46.7 percent rise from last year's
average price.
The
United States, Germany, Belgium,
Italy and Spain top the list of Vietnamese coffee buyers
in 2011, with Belgium
replacing Spain
as the third-largest buyer, the ministry's data show. ($1=21,025 dong) |
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FACTBOX - Vietnam's 2011/2012 coffee production - RTRS
Dec 7
(Reuters) - Vietnam's coffee output from the 2011/2012 harvest due to end next month is likely
to be 9 percent higher than the previous harvest, a senior industry executive said
on Wednesday. [ nL3E7N73DA] For
related preview of a coffee conference in Ho Chi Minh City, click [nL4E7N21EM]
Here
are key data and facts about Vietnam's coffee production in the current crop
year ending September 2012, which accounts for 14.5 percent of
global output, based on ICO data.
Vietnam's coffee production and
exports (million bags):
Crop year (Oct-Sept) 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10
Planting
area 555,065 537,000
Output
- Vicofa (Dec 7) 20.83 19.17 17.5
- ICO (Nov
10) 18.5 19.47 18.2
- ABN AMRO/VM (Aug 30) 21.5 20.0 18.4
- Reuters poll (July 21) 21.0 18.5 19.33
- USDA (June 20) 20.60 18.73 18.5
- Traders (May 2011) 23-24 21-22
Domestic consumption
- ICO (March
9) 1.58 1.21
Export 21.17 19.97
(Vicofa: The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa
Association)
PRODUCTION
The coffee crop year runs from October to September in
Vietnam,
the world's second-biggest producer after Brazil.
The
harvest started peaking from late November and will end
in
January, before the lunar new year starts on Jan. 23, 2012.
About 30 to 40 percent of the
harvest has been picked now, Intimex General Director Do Ha Nam said.
The
previous harvest ended in December 2010, two weeks earlier than usual, as
farmers in the Central
Highlands coffee belt rushed to
pick beans to catch up with good prices.
About
80 percent of Vietnam's coffee comes from the region, which borders Laos and
Cambodia to the west.
Vietnamese companies and
individuals have also leased land in the two neighbouring countries to grow
coffee.
The
coffee belt has five provinces: Daklak, Lam Dong, Gia Lai, Dak Nong and
Kontum, with output ranking in that order. Daklak alone
produced around 6.7 million bags of coffee a year, about a third of Vietnam's
total.
Vietnam
also grows catimor, a variety of arabica. Main areas include the northern
province of Son La, Quang Tri province in the
central region and Lam Dong in the Central Highlands.
PRICING
Vietnam's
most common coffee export grade is robusta grade 2, 5 percent black and
broken. They are often
quoted at a discount to London
robusta futures as buyers want to hedge against risks in delivery timing and
bean quality.
Traders
said foreign buyers were waiting for prices to fall at the harvest peak and
would jump in to buy if the discount widens to
$100 a tonne from $10-$40 now.
A tonne
of robusta rose to between 40.7 million dong and 41.1 million dong on
Wednesday in the Central Highlands,
from 39.3-39.4 million dong a
week ago, tracking London's rise on Tuesday when the January contract LRCF2 increased $4 to finish at $2,010 a
tonne. [nL5E7N63QX]
For Vietnam's latest coffee
export prices: COFFEE/ASIA1.
STOCKPILING PLAN
Vietnamese
exporters have not started buying beans under an industry-backed plan
intended to stockpile more than 440,000 tonnes,
or 35 percent of the country's 2011/2012 crop output.
They
have reached agreement with banks over funding, but as farmers were holding
back on fresh beans, exporters have not
been able to carry out the stockpiling, Nam said.
The
plan, if implemented, could help support London prices as it will reduce the
outflow of Vietnamese robusta beans.
EXPORT
Vietnam may have exported a
record 1.31 million tonnes, or 21.83 million bags, in the 2010/2011 crop.
The
figure is based on government export data for the October 2010-September 2011
crop year,plus loading volumes in October
and November, before fresh supplies started hitting the market, traders said. [nL4E7MO0VH]
The
country has more than 150 export firms, but 20 companies account for the bulk
of the overall export volume.
Vietnam
exports coffee to more than 80 countries and territories, with the United
States, Germany, Belgium,Italy and Spain leading the top
10 buyers so far in 2011.
Malaysia, Indonesia and China
have emerged as growing markets for Vietnamese coffee, exporters said.
(Reporting by Ho Binh
Minh; Editing by Ramthan Hussain) ((
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